Good morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of the world economic system, the monetary markets, the eurozone and enterprise.
The UK’s financial outlook seems to be much less shiny this morning, as shortages, rising prices, and the potential for extra Covid restrictions all threaten development.
KPMG has warned that GDP development may greater than halve subsequent 12 months if extra restrictions are launched to fight Omicron, relying on the severity of the brand new variant.
In its central state of affairs, the UK authorities would deliver again social distancing restrictions in retail and hospitality venues, and encourages individuals to earn a living from home if they will in January and February 2022.
If that occurred, the economic system would contract round 2% within the first quarter of 2022, slowing total development subsequent 12 months to 2.6%, down from 6.7% this 12 months.
In KPMG’s draw back state of affairs, the specter of a major rise in acute Covid-19 instances triggers one other lockdown in early 2022. That will set off a pointy fall in GDP, round 4.2%, in January-March 2022, dragging development subsequent 12 months down to only 1.8%.
Whereas development momentum is anticipated to decelerate till a booster is rolled out to halt the rise in instances, the complete influence of the brand new variant will depend upon the rise within the variety of acute Covid instances and any social distancing restrictions which can be launched, it explains.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, says:
“The Omicron variant has elevated the extent of uncertainty concerning the restoration path from the pandemic.
Whereas the influence will not be anticipated to be as extreme as at the beginning of the pandemic, and even the start of this 12 months, elevated uncertainty and the potential reintroduction of social distancing measures may see output fall this month and in the course of the first quarter of 2022.”
Some sectors might stay considerably impacted by the pandemic, in contrast with the general economic system, the report provides:
Extra journey restrictions and new pandemic sizzling spots are anticipated to see a slower and extra protracted restoration within the sector. Rail journey may even be affected by a slower return of commuters to their workplaces.
Commuter footfall was nonetheless down by 22% in late November in comparison with pre-pandemic ranges and is more likely to fall as individuals are inspired to earn a living from home.
KPMG additionally warns that provide chains would come underneath extra strain, if the pandemic once more results in extra demand for items from locked-down shoppers. Labour shortages have change into a major obstacle to development, it provides, in addition to pushing up wages.
These issues may deter the Financial institution of England from elevating rates of interest at its subsequent financial coverage assembly later this month. Deputy governor Sir Ben Broadbent provides his view of the financial outlook this morning.
We additionally learn the way UK and eurozone builders fared final month.
- 7am GMT: German manufacturing unit orders for October
- 8.30am GMT: Eurozone building PMI for November
- 8.30am GMT: UK building PMI for November
- 11.30am: Financial institution of England deputy governor Sir Ben Broadbent provides a speech at Leeds College on “Outlook for development, inflation and financial coverage”