Retail gross sales fall for fifth month operating, as UK shopper confidence slides – enterprise reside | Enterprise

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of the world economic system, the monetary markets, the eurozone and enterprise.

Retail gross sales throughout Nice Britain have fallen once more, of their longest shedding streak in at the very least 25 years, in an indication that the UK financial rebound may very well be fading.

Retail gross sales volumes dropped by 0.2% in September 2021, pushed by a fall in spending at non-food shops, though there was a leap in spending on gas throughout final month’s panic shopping for.

That’s the fifth month-to-month decline in a row, after the preliminary burst of spending as retailers reopened after the pandemic lockdown.

That, the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics says, is the longest run of month-to-month falls in a row because the survey started in 1996.

Economists had anticipated a 0.5% rise.






UK retail gross sales fell in September, however at nonetheless 4.2% above the extent seen earlier than the pandemic {Photograph}: ONS

Spending fell most sharply at non-food shops, the place gross sales volumes dropped by 1.4%.

That included a 9.3% fall at family items shops, with furnishings and lighting shops gross sales tumbling by 14.8%.

Spending at meals retailers rose by 0.6% — and is 3.9% above pre-coronavirus pandemic ranges.

Final month’s panic on the pumps lifted automotive gas gross sales volumes by 2.9% in September 2021 — or 1.8% above their pre-pandemic February 2020 ranges.

The ONS provides that consumes are nonetheless spending extra on-line than earlier than Covid-19.

The proportion of retail gross sales on-line rose to twenty-eight.1% in September 2021 from 27.9% in August, and “considerably greater” than the 19.7% in February 2020 earlier than the pandemic.

Reuters’ Andy Bruce has noticed that the ONS have revised down their earlier retail gross sales figures too:

Andy Bruce
(@BruceReuters)

Attention-grabbing to notice the @ONS has simply revised down the extent of retail gross sales for each month this 12 months

(proven under are the revisions to index numbers for complete retail gross sales volumes) pic.twitter.com/88IDlAPKeJ


October 22, 2021

Additionally arising at present

New buying supervisor indices within the UK, France, Germany and the broader eurozone will present how manufacturing and companies corporations are faring this month.

Michael Hewson of CMC Markets says the PMIs may present a slowdown:


Up to now few months, it has develop into more and more obvious that we’ve seen peak PMI, on the subject of Germany and France, in addition to the UK, though the slowdown has been extra marked in Germany the place we’ve seen a giant fall from ranges within the low 60’s to the mid to excessive 50’s. France manufacturing flash PMI is anticipated to come back in at 53.9, and companies 55.6.

In Germany September manufacturing exercise fell to its lowest degree since January, whereas companies slipped to a three-month low, with each anticipated to weaken additional to 56.5 and 55.2 respectively in October.

UK manufacturing and companies exercise has additionally seen reasonable weak point previously few months, however has proven some proof of stabilisation, though rising energy costs are actually beginning to develop into a headwind, not solely within the UK however the world over. UK manufacturing is anticipated to gradual to 56.1, and companies to 54.5.

Yesterday, the CBI warned that British corporations face the tightest provide chain squeeze because the Nineteen Seventies

The agenda

  • 7am BST: UK retail gross sales for September
  • 9am BST: Eurozone ‘flash’ survey of buying managers this month
  • 9.30am BST: UK ‘flash’ survey of buying managers this month
  • 11.30am BST: Russia’s central financial institution units rates of interest
  • 2.45pm BTS: US ‘flash’ survey of buying managers this month

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